Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin has a three-point edge over Gov. Kathy Hochul amongst political independents in New York — however trails her 54% to 37% amongst possible voters total, based on a Siena Ballot launched Wednesday.
However the ballot, which has a 3.9% margin of error, reveals a a lot tighter battle within the New York Metropolis suburbs between Democrats and Republicans.
Hochul is main Zeldin within the suburbs 50% to 45% whereas suburbanites are evenly break up 47% to 47% on the celebration they’re supporting for Congress amid a half dozen aggressive races on Lengthy Island and within the Hudson Valley.
Republican lawyer basic nominee Michael Henry is main incumbent Democrat Letitia James 47% to 44% as nicely amongst suburbanites, which the ballot defines as residents of Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Orange counties.
Different statewide races are tight in these areas, as nicely, regardless of the massive leads loved by Democratic incumbents total because of their dominance of New York Metropolis the place Zeldin obtained simply 20% assist within the ballot.
Specialists say he might want to enhance that by 10 factors to have a shot towards Hochul, a Buffalo native who’s down by only one level – 44% to 45% – upstate, the place Republican gubernatorial candidates historically win large.
Earlier polls have proven Hochul with a lead starting from single digits to greater than 20 factors.
Hochul led by 14 factors in a Siena ballot launched in early August.
“Hochul has a commanding two-to-one lead, 61-29% with ladies, and has a slim 48-44% lead with males. White voters facet with Hochul by 10 factors, Latinos by 25 factors and blacks by 68 factors,” pollster Steven Greenberg mentioned.
Hochul and President Joe Biden have 53% approval rankings within the survey of 655 possible voters performed Sept. 16-25 with 46% of respondents disapproving of Biden in comparison with 42% for Hochul.
Statewide Democratic Social gathering candidates are all up by at the very least 16 factors over their GOP challengers alongside a 54% to 39% edge by which celebration New Yorkers need answerable for Congress subsequent yr.
AG James is main Henry total by 53% to 37% whereas U.S. Senate Chuck Schumer is forward of former Newsmax host Joe Pinion 55% to 36%.
However no Democrat seems safer than 15-year incumbent Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, a Nassau County native, who’s 23 factors forward of challenger Paul Rodriguez with a nine-point edge as nicely within the suburbs.
An absence of identify recognition seems to be dragging the GOP ticket from Zeldin on down.
Hochul has a 47-40% favorability ranking, little modified from 46-41% in August. And the governor has a 53-42% job approval ranking, little modified from 52-41%.
Zeldin has a 31-33% favorability ranking, down just a little from 31-28%, Greenberg mentioned.
Zeldin seems unknown to roughly a 3rd of the citizens, with the ballot stating that 36% of respondents “don’t know” or “refused” to say whether or not they have a positive impression of the Lengthy Island congressman.
A 92% majority of possible voters mentioned the identical about Henry in comparison with 87% for Rodriguez and 88% for Pinion.
“Now, with fewer than six weeks till Election Day, these Republican challengers – underfunded in comparison with the Democrats — have their work lower out for them in a state with greater than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, extra independents than registered Republicans, and the place the GOP hasn’t received a statewide election in 20 years,” Greenberg mentioned.
A complete of 30% of voters rated “financial points” as the highest challenge within the race adopted by “threats to democracy” at 22%, crime at 12%, “nationwide gun insurance policies” at 8% and abortion at 6%.
A 55% majority helps a $4.2 billion environmental bond act happening the November poll whereas 26% oppose it.